Science has indeed confirmed that sea levels are rising, with coastal cities like Mumbai at the forefront of this environmental challenge. However, the narrative is far from a simple doomsday scenario. It’s a call to action, a prompt for innovation, and a tale of resilience.
When I was in about seventh or eighth grade, I was researching a project in environmental studies, and I came across a magazine cover story with a scary headline that said something about the effect of Mumbai sinking by 2050, along with a dramatic aerial shot of Mumbai city. I remember being alarmed and a little shocked, to be honest. The possibility had never occurred to me before. Here I sit now, writing my first ever cover story on the future of coastal cities. Life has come a full circle. That moment of youthful discovery, shadowed by a mix of fear and fascination, planted a seed. It has since grown into a commitment to understand and share the complexities and beauties of our interaction with the natural world, especially as it pertains to the places we call home along the world’s vast coastlines.
In the years following my initial shock at the magazine’s dire prediction, my journey took me through a labyrinth of science, stories, and solutions that paint a multifaceted picture of our coastal futures. What seemed like a prophetic warning to my teenage self has become a grim reality today. The IPCC Working Group I report states, “Coastal areas will see continued sea-level rise throughout the 21st century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal erosion with extreme sea-level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century.” This and many other reports, one after another, echo the same message. That does not bode well for the future of coastal cities.
World without Venice
Could you imagine the world without Venice? The city inspires countless songs, poems, and films. Yet the city is facing the very real threat of being inundated by water. Another instance is the city of Jakarta. The capital of Indonesia, is in such bad shape that there are plans to shift the capital to Nusantara, which is still being built. Many other cities around the world are facing the same fate. Every country with a coastline is impacted by the worldwide story of sea level rise. But Asia’s story is particularly alarming. The IPCC report predicts that 12 Indian coastal cities—Kandla, Okha, Bhavnagar, Mumbai, Mormugao, Mangalore, Cochin, Paradip, Khidirpur, Visakhapatnam, Chennai, and Tuticorin—could be under almost three feet of water by the end of this century. Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, was listed as the world’s most susceptible city to sea level rise in the 2050 Climate Change Index.
A quarter of the city of Bangkok has already gone underwater since the devastating floods of 2011.
It’s tempting to dismiss the escalating issue and argue that humanity will simply find new frontiers. But the problem is more than that of sinking coastal cities. While this is a long-term climate event, micro-climatic events like urban flooding are becoming increasingly frequent and intense globally. A key factor is the degradation of mangrove forests, pivotal to the coastal ecosystem, which once served as natural barriers against the fury of cyclones and storms. This destruction leads not only to loss of life and livelihood but also triggers migration, as seen in areas like the Sunderbans, driving people towards already crowded urban enters. Considering that 20 per cent of the population lives along the coast, with a significant portion in cities like Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata, the ramifications could be dire. Not to mention the economic loss. Coastal districts contribute significantly to the economy, not just because of metropolises but because they are connected to the blue economy. Nine coastal states in India roughly attract 50 per cent of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). With the devastation of coastal ecosystems, the loss is not only environmental but also economic and humanitarian.
Sea & city
What kind of images come to your mind when you think of a coastal city? A beautiful view of the beach, most probably. And sea food, perhaps. There’s so little we know of our coastal cities, even those of us who’ve had the privilege of calling them home for a short burst of time. Estuaries, lagoons, mangroves, backwaters, salt marshes, rocky coasts, sandy stretches, and coral reefs are all part of the beautiful, fragile marine ecosystem.
Coastal cities have treated our seas as garbage dumps and open sewers for generations. What was once a symbiotic relationship between the sea and cities has now become an exploitative one. We have planned our cities in such a way that all kinds of waste, from municipal solid waste to untreated sewer water, find their way into the sea. Moreover, modern urban activities in marine environments, including busy shipping lanes, wind farms, drilling rigs, and industrial fishing, compromise the health of ocean ecosystems while supporting urban consumption and production. The oceans, acting as a significant carbon sink, mitigate some effects of climate change caused by reliance on fossil fuels. However, this has led to detrimental consequences, including ocean acidification and warming, which threaten marine life and disrupt essential food chains.
Moreover, the unsustainable practices of the fishing industry mirror those of land-based industrial food production, with most global fisheries operating at or beyond capacity. The increased efficiency and reach of fishing techniques have led to a dramatic rise in the global fish catch, putting immense strain on marine populations, including the controversial practice of shark finning, which has both ethical and ecological repercussions. Addressing these challenges necessitates a thoughtful reexamination of our relationship with the oceans, guided by sustainable practices and policies.
Sink or SWIM
While reducing emissions is the long-term mitigation strategy cities need to focus on, adaptation to the changing needs of coastal cities is as urgent, if not more. As coastal cities continue to burgeon, the dialogue between land and sea is becoming more critical. And cities become their mediators. Professor Timothy Beatly, professor of sustainable communities at the University of Virginia, gives the concept of ‘blue urbanism’, which is, in a way, an expansion on the idea of ‘green urbanism’. “Blue urbanism encourages planners, citizens, and policymakers to examine the broad ocean impacts that support modern urban lifestyles and the strategies for modifying these to do less harm to blue environments,” he writes in his eponymous book.
The concept of living with water, rather than fighting against it, has sparked innovative urban design strategies. In Rotterdam, the Netherlands, floating houses and public spaces are not science fiction but a reality. These adaptable solutions not only mitigate the risk of flooding but also offer a blueprint for sustainable urban living, showcasing how cities can thrive in harmony with their marine surroundings.
At the United Nations headquarters in New York, a groundbreaking floating city prototype designed to adapt to rising sea levels has been revealed. This innovative project consists of three interconnected platforms, covering a total area of 15.5 acres, and is set to accommodate a community of 12,000 residents. However, Busan is not the only site where such futuristic urban solutions are taking shape. In September 2021, the Netherlands saw the inauguration of the carbon-neutral Floating Office Rotterdam by King Willem-Alexander. This Dutch marvel is engineered to adjust its position with changing water levels. Furthermore, construction is poised to commence on the Maldives Floating City this year. Situated in the Indian Ocean, the Maldives is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, with over 80 per cent of its territory less than a metre above sea level.
A drop in the ocean
The vital role of city governments in disseminating information and fostering an understanding of the intricate bond between urban development and marine ecosystems cannot be overstated. Local Climate Action Plans (CAP) need to recognise marine environments as integral to the vitality and identity of coastal cities. Beyond the mere management of coastal spaces as public areas, local authorities must broaden their scope to include robust assessments of beach health and implement strategies that address the multifaceted challenges facing urban coastlines. Ultimately, change happens when people develop a sense of ownership over their natural resources. This is where local governments can play an important role in creating awareness and strengthening the relationship between urban residents and their environment. Our individual efforts may feel like a drop in the ocean, but they will surely go a long way in ensuring the sustainability and resilience of coastal cities.
Coastal cities have treated our seas as garbage dumps and open sewers for generations. What was once a symbiotic relationship between the sea and cities has now become an exploitative one.