The COP26 is just about three weeks away. As world governments sharpen their negotiation skills to bargain for better deals for their respective countries and regions, I would suggest that cities look into the recently submitted report of the UN Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Internal Displacement. In this column, I have been writing how internal displacements due to climate change and other reasons will impact the cities. They need to accommodate more and more people and have the task of providing them with a life of dignity, along with creating sustainable environments for the cities to thrive.
Cities, where more than 55 per cent of world population now lives, contribute the most to the climate crisis and, at the same time, bear a lot of devastating impacts caused by climate change. While different governments have taken different stands on the net-zero commitments, and it is going to be a hot topic during the COP26, cities need to understand the implication of the growing number of migrants they will receive if emission targets are not achieved.
The concern that there is lack of due international attention on internal displacement prompted the Secretary General of the United Nations to announce, on May 10, 2019, the formation of an independent high-level panel to examine the growing crisis and to suggest concrete and practical recommendations to member states, the United Nations system and other relevant stakeholders, particularly where it is protracted. The first-of-its-kind report has just been submitted to the UN Secretary General in
September 2021.
A crisis in need of attention, local solutions
The report informs that a staggering 55 million people were internally displacement at the end of 2020. Conflicts, violence, disasters and climate change are said to be the major drivers for these people to flee their homes and search for new places to stay.
The recent decades have been experiencing more new displacements than before. These internally displaced people (IDPs) are forced to leave their histories, geographies, socio-cultural settings, livelihoods and secured societies to land in relief & rehabilitation camps, unorganised and informal settlements, and untold miseries. Among other challenges for rehabilitating them, local governments have to face with problems of the most vulnerable people such as women, children, persons with disabilities, elderly people, so on and so forth. The above report informs that women and girls make up over half of the world’s IDPs, five million IDPs are living with disabilities, an estimated 2.6 million are elderly, and over 30.5 million are children and youth. Cities, where most of these people would land up, have their tasks cut out. Inclusive and sustainable growth models are the need of the hour. The added population to cities will increase the pressure on local natural resources and basic amenities. With climate change-triggered IDPs on the rise, the challenge is to make these models ready at super-fast speeds.
Climate change induced internal displacement
With increased extreme weather events and related disasters, sea level rise and droughts are forcing people to migrate out of their homes to relatively safer places. The number of IDP caused by climate change has been growing exponentially. It is estimated that, of the 40.5 million new internal displacements in 2020 – the highest annual figure for 10 years – almost 30.7 million people were displaced due to weather-related disasters. That is an increase of about 5.8 million over the previous year’s figure of 24.9 million, which itself had jumped by almost 7.7 million over 2018. The World Bank’s signature Groundswell Report on internal migration due to climate change estimated in 2018 that the number of internal climate migrants, or the IDPs, could be more than 143 million by 2050. The very latest update of the Groundswell Report, released in September 2021, projects this to increase to 226 million people by 2050. In fact, desertification alone can cause about 135 million people to migrate worldwide in a decade.
Climate change, the Groundswell Report says, is an increasingly potent driver of migration in six world regions, and will force these people to move within their countries. “Hotspots of internal climate migration could emerge as early as 2030 and continue to spread and intensify by 2050. By 2050, sub-Saharan Africa could see as many as 86 million internal climate migrants; East Asia and the Pacific, 49 million; South Asia, 40 million; North Africa, 19 million; Latin America, 17 million; and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 5 million,” the report further says.
Cities to benefit from net-zero commitments
Cities have grown as a separate world, much different than the rural areas they have drawn their populations from. While the national governments are at different stages of their commitment to net-zero emission targets, cities should chart their own targets and climate action plans. By 2050, it is estimated that about three quarters of the world will be living in cities. This may actually be higher if the emission targets set out in the Paris Climate Accord are not met. At the moment, they already contribute to about 80 per cent of the global GDP and consume two-thirds of global energy.
This also means they are the largest emitters of carbon. That is more than 70 per cent of the global total at the moment. Committing to ambitious net-zero targets has therefore become essential for cities. Energy is a major area where cities need to work more strategically than ever before.
To meet the needs of a growing population and to keep the economic engine running, cities will need massive growth in urban energy infrastructure. This energy infrastructure would be built not only in cities but also all across the world. If cities keep opting for fossil fuel based energy sources such as coal, they will keep contributing to the increased Green House Gases (GHGs) emissions.
This would also mean more and more people will be facing displacement, both due to global warming impacts and local drivers associated with coal mining and coal fired power plants. Cities should therefore push for a rapid transition to green energy sources both inside their geographical limits as well as in other areas from where they draw power. That would help them tackle the IDP challenge along with that of climate change.
Towards solution
The International Energy Agency says in a report that local governments are uniquely placed to deliver on the net-zero agenda by strengthening their own systems and strengthening cooperation with other stakeholders, including regional and national governments. With regard to dealing with the IDPs issues, the UN High Level Panel recommends making solutions a nationally owned, whole-of-government priority. Cities, where the decision making process for the nation takes place and which determine the fate of everybody, should take a lead in this. This is also because they have to host most of the IDPs.
The very first thing governments need to do is to create a strong database of IDPs by recognizing them. “States are urged to acknowledge IDPs and situations of internal displacement and ensure that action to address displacement is a national priority, recognizing it as both a duty of the State to its citizens and residents, and a critical step for development, peace and prosperity,” recommends the High-Level Panel. It is essential to strengthen the effective use of internal displacement data. According to the Panel, without understanding the extent of displacement, who is most affected and how (with attention to age, gender and diversity in particular), and the needs and capacities of displaced populations, it is not possible to develop effective public policies, operational plans and responses.
With a dynamic data generation process, the governments should plan strategic actions to provide the IDPs with all support needed for their socio-economic development. This should be inclusive, transparent and accountable. In this, the cities could take a lead role by not only providing financial support but also sourcing climate finances from national and global sources. The national government could help the cities in case of the latter sources. World governments and other stakeholders participating in the COP26 should discuss all these and build effective resilience and finance systems to help the IDPs get justice. They have not contributed to climate catastrophe, but they bear the maximum brunt of its impact.
