The recent flooding in Delhi and other parts of India is yet another sign that climate change impacts could be disastrous in absence of adequate infrastructure. The national capital came to halt as the northern parts of the city were flooded and even the Secretariat had to be closed. This has brought the spotlight back on the conversation around cities and development of safe infrastructure. And while this is an important conversation to be had, I am forced to think of what this means for us in the long-term.
In the past few years, disasters have been increasing in number and intensity, and researchers are attributing to climate change. Global temperatures and sea levels are rising which puts countries and cities on the coastline at risk. Migrations, internal and international, will be increasing in the near future as has been stated in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). As per IPCC report, “Climate Change over the 21st century is projected to increase displacement of people.” In the absence of a universally agreed definition of environmental migration, there is a lack of clear data on climate change’s gradual effects on migration. According to the report, new internal displacements in the world in 2020 due to disasters were much higher than those by conflict. The Philippines experienced the highest absolute numbers of new disaster displacements in 2020 (approximately 5.1 million).
South Asia is particularly vulnerable to disaster risks from climate change as has been repeatedly made clear in many reports and researches in the past. The World Migration Report 2022 published by International Organisation of Migration mentions that in 2020, one of the subregions most impacted by disasters was South Asia. The subregion accounted for roughly a third of all new global displacements brought on by disasters, with 9.3 million new disaster displacements. In addition to rising temperatures, South Asia is also affected by frequent and extreme weather events, torrential rains, and rising sea levels. The biggest natural disaster to hit the planet in 2020, Cyclone Amphan forced millions of people to flee countries including Bangladesh and India, the report adds. According to some study, the subregion has the highest danger of flooding that would cause displacement and many residents are at risk of rising temperatures. One such region is the forests of the Sunderbans, shared by India and Bangladesh where rising sea levels encroach upon ancestral lands and threaten the lives and livelihoods of its residents.
Increased displacement and migration is likely to cause increased unplanned urbanisation. In the absence of land and agricultural or their traditional livelihood, people settle in cities to get by. We need to focus on migration as adaptation, even though it is the last resort.