India’s rapidly growing oil imports have not received sufficient attention. From 2019 to 2022, oil imports surged by 68 per cent, reaching 232 million tons in 2022-23. Toll data for Mumbai-Pune expressway shows that cars now account for 84 per cent of total vehicles that use this toll per day. A few years back the proportion of cars was only 60 per cent. This not only puts pressure on the environment but also economy since the majority of oil supply in India is imported. Consider semi-high-speed trains/buses as the primary alternative to cars to optimise investments, speeds, and the economy in a broad transport policy aimed at reducing pollution and dependence on imported fuel
As the world’s third-largest importer of oil, India is on track to become the second-largest in the next few years, which poses significant risks to our fragile ‘Atmanirbharta’. Domestic oil production accounts for only 13 per cent of the consumption. Adding 20 per cent ethanol to petrol, switching over to more electric cars – are undoubtedly laudable efforts but are not enough. By the current projections, number of vehicles consuming auto fuel will still increase due to more highways and lack of any competing rail alternatives. On the roads too, the dominant growth will come primarily from private cars and two wheelers using auto fuels. The value of oil imports in rupees has increased by 89 per cent, and this upward trend is expected to continue. This can constrain growth and will push the goals of “net zero” further away. The share of intra city and inter city traffic by cars/taxies is rapidly increasing (mostly consuming imported oil) as against buses /trains which consume electricity is seriously declining. It is bad both economically and environmentally.
The policy doesn’t contain any serious solution to achieve reduction in import of oil. This is the reality of our proclaimed public transport policy. How are we going to ever attain Paris goals of net zero emission outcomes, before 2050? Looking at the current climate situation, it is too late.
Don’t count on a rapid and substantial growth in EVs
As of now, the number of electric vehicles is negligible- only two per cent of the annual addition of vehicles. At this rate, we may, at best, achieve a reduction in the growth rate for import of fossil fuels and emissions–and not reduction in absolute terms. What we must achieve within three years is actual reduction in imports of oil and its value. In this respect, Vande Bharat is purely an expensive toy. The influx of new car and SUV models, along with the expansion of highways, will further increase car ownership and fuel consumption, potentially leading to disaster. It is crucial to recognize that the increasing dependence on oil through an increase in vehicle demand is unsustainable. And Japan with the biggest car industry in the world has shown that it has successfully achieved a reduction in demand for vehicles to contain the import of oil and achieve environmental goals.
What are the demand side solutions?
We can learn from smart capitalist countries such as Japan, Singapore, Britain as well as other countries including People’s Republic of China, which is a communist country. But their serious acknowledgement and implementation even in smaller doses has proved challenging due to lack of Objective Driven Comprehensive Policy Framework. The policy should focus on the following.
Encourage commuters to prefer public transport for intra-city travel. For instance, railways is used by three cr commuters every day including the affluent population of Tokyo which owns ten times more cars per capita (but all are parked in private parking places.)
For inter-city travel, railways should be made not only significantly faster, but also convenient and affordable for passengers.
Solution for transport of goods is the dedicated freight corridors – two such corridors have been under implementation. It took time to realize their importance but they are now on track. This is the single most important transport project in the country. It aims at carrying 96 trains each way and each day, completing journey from Punjab to Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT) in the west and to Kolkata in the east in 24 hours. There will be specially designed freight terminals on the way. It can electrify goods transport on trunk routes to save fuel cost, environment and time and improve the logistics. IT can reduce cost, time and improve efficiency for transport of goods radically like China.
How to make passenger transport cleaner, cheaper and faster
This was to be attained in the long term by bullet train and in the short term by Vande Bharat trains. Implicit in this was the idea to reverse the rapidly declining share of railways versus the new culture of using private car. Railways use clean and cheap fuel of electricity and are cheaper to build and operate. Such trains are commonly used all over Europe. Our current trains Rajdhani and Vande Bharat run at an average of 80 to 90 km per hour with peak speed of 100 to 130 km. Whereas genuine semi high speed can achieve average speed of 180 to 200 km per hour. Their investment per km is about one third that of Bullet train. Of course, like highways, they are not flexible to carry all kind of vehicles.
Semi high speed trains can do two or four round trips in a day instead of conventional trains doing only two trips per day. That is a huge benefit. We can build network encompassing golden quadrilateral and a few other important routes in a period of ten years at a cost of two bullet trains. Their fuel cost will be one third that of trucks or buses. And it is a significant buster of imported oil. Our status as a global economic power will increase significantly if we reduce import of oil substantially. It may even reduce the prices of oil as we will be the largest importer. Today due to highways and good quality cars, people are fond of choosing car highway combination in preference to buses/trains. That equation can change with such a big difference to saving of time. Even the fares will be affordable to middle class and even lower class commuters. People can use cars but on fewer occasions and by fewer people. We need to use taxation of cars to correct the imbalance and undertaxation.
Bullet train will take some years and lot of money for the second pair of stations after Ahmedabad- Mumbai. Hence the short term clever solution was Vande Bharat trains. In fact, railways are trying on Mumbai-Goa route, a speed of 180 km per hour speed. But it is not easy and duplicating it to other 17 existing routes is just not possible. It was the speed which is a primary objective. But we should expedite pilot Pune-Nashik and work out a more serious and true large expansion of this system to cover golden quadrilateral and more routes.
I think that was the objective of Vande Bharat trains. But we need urgent course correction. Essentially this means use of cheaper and cleaner fuel will go a long way in benefitting economy and environment. Now, the speed is getting low priority as we see most Vande Bharat trains are as fast or even slower than Rajdhanis. Their coaches are getting fewer and they are getting luxurious and touristy. This is an important segment but it will take care of barely two to three per cent of rail travellers. Bullet train will take four years to get commissioned and any more trains on bullet model will take a few years.
It is crucial to recognize that the increasing dependence on oil through an increase in vehicle demand is unsustainable. And Japan with the biggest car industry in the world has shown that it has successfully achieved a reduction in demand for vehicles to contain the import of oil and achieve environmental goals