Sinking cities

Climate change and poor urban planning aided by crumbling infrastructure is making Indian cities vulnerable to huge losses during incessant rains. Recent flooding in Delhi, Gurugram and many others are some examples

 

A change in a city’s name does not change its fate due to disastrous city planning.  In July this year, the monsoon had not yet cheered up the parched nationthat had been suffering for the third consecutive year of drought, whenGurugram (new name for one of India’s most happening cities Gurgaon) saw its roads turn into rivers.  A traffic jam extending beyond a night caught the attention of the entire mainstream media and we saw long and never ending hours of debateon television.  Something similar happened when the heavy rains had lashed Mumbai in 2005 and Chennai last year.

The debates faded as soon as the traffic became normal, the nation continued to build more such cities without factoring in such floods (and most importantly ‘climate change’).  Our obsession with urbanisation – and construction associated with it – has outsmarted our science, conscience and commonsense.  Our city planners are either hesitant to learn or are deliberately ignoring the fact that our cities are sinking. Getting used to and becoming indifferent towards disastersseems to be the new mantra our urban planners want us to learn.

Cities and climate change: huge losses, no lessons

Climate change induced extreme events such as floods will impact many of the world’s cities inthe coming years.  In fact, the evidence is already building with strong warning messages for our planners. The Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 2014 said that half to two-thirds of Asia’s cities with one million or more inhabitants are exposed to one or multiple hazards, with floods and cyclones the most important. The report further indicated that by the 2070s Kolkata and Mumbai would be two of the most vulnerable cities at risk due to climate change in terms of population and assets exposed to coastal flooding. Cities are expanding out of bounds and the poor in the cities are always at higher risk of exposure to floods and related woes.

Cities will also have huge financial and infrastructural losses due to increased floods.  A study by World Bank economist Stephane Hallegatte and team has warned that Mumbai and Kolkata would face annual loss of $6.4 billion and $3.4 billion respectively by 2050 due to flooding even if they put in place upgraded protection systems.  Such high loss is expected in cities because of our lopsided growth models that are now promoting urban areas at the cost of the other parts of the nation.  More and more people will be flocking to cities looking for better economic opportunities, services and amenities.

This study has assessed the loss due to floods in different risk scenarios.  In the worst risk scenario, the study says, the world’s 136 largest coastal cities could face a combined annual loss of $1 trillion (750 billion euros) from floods by 2050 unless they drastically raise their defenses.  Urban planning has a lot to blame for this loss as well.  Defenses such as the embankments and dykesdo always invite more risks.  Higher dykes may reduce flooding but the magnitude of losses when it does occur will be high.  Experience shows that protection from dykes means more people trying to take shelter behind the dykes and hence inviting bigger catastrophes.

The risks grow higher with climate change induced sea levelrise and subsidence, the study said. In fact, city managers and Indian planners need to worry more about climate change impacts now.

Worrisome trends: the case of two high risk cities

In November 2014 India’s environment minister echoed theIPCC warning and said Mumbai and Kolkata are among the most vulnerable cities to floods in the world.  Both of them are coastal cities and prone to multiple risks such as flooding, sea rise and subsidence.

Mumbai’s flood caught global attention in 2005. July that year, in a span of 24 hours alone, the city received 94 cm of rain and an exceptional storm.  It left more than 1000 people dead, mostly in slums.  Mumbai chocked and went out of gear for almost a week, the impacts continued for months.

The IPCC estimates that Mumbai at present is the city with the largest population exposed tocoastal flooding.  Currently a little below 3 million people are exposed to such risks, which is estimated to grow to more than 11 million by 2070. The people at risk will not only be from Mumbai but all connected to the city’s functions.  Increase in extreme events due to climate change is the single largest factor in this, assert experts.

The report further says that increases in precipitationare projected for the Asian monsoon, along with increased inter-annualseasonally averaged precipitation variability. Then, extreme sea levels can be expected to change in the futureas a result of mean sea level rise and changes in atmospheric storminess,and it is very likely that sea level rise will contribute to increases inextreme sea levels in the future.

Kolkata, India’s 3rd most populous metropolitan area, has one of the highest population densitiesat 24,000 people per square kilometer, and is one of the coastal cities most vulnerable to climate change. Located on the banks of the Hooghly River, Kolkata has been found to be one of the world’s most flood-prone coastal cities.

According to a flood vulnerability study conducted by researchers from the Netherlands and the UK, the city’s growing population and exposure to storms make it an easy target. Modest flooding during monsoon at high tide in the Hooghly River is a recurring phenomenon in Kolkata. Climate change is likely to intensify this problem through a combination of more intense rainfall, riverine flooding in the Hooghly, sea-level rise and coastal storm surges.

The real problem goes beyond just traffic jams

As we write, Delhi and Gurugram are facing severe traffic jams again.  The roads have turned into rivers.  We have seen the same in many of India’s cities this monsoon. However, our people and planners both forget about the floods as soon as the traffic eases and television channels shift to other issues.  Climate change induced extreme events will be exacerbated by such forgetful minds.

Climate change impacts have to be integrated into city planning.  Improved movement of flood water is a must.  For this to happen, we need to restore and revive all our water ways, water bodies and flood plains.

Floods have not only devastated our urban areas with huge destructions but also have exposed the varied problems that the planners face.  At a time when governments are increasing their urban development investments by leaps and bounds, our cities cannot really afford to stay ill prepared anymore.  Cities have to develop climate resilience through well-planned exercises that bring in experts, people and policy makers together, make our cities resilient and help the people fight disasters effectively.

Most importantly, the urban poor have to be helped substantially in developing their coping mechanisms or else their vulnerabilities will multiply and our dream of inclusive cities will keep eluding us for decades.

Towards this, two things need to be understood at the primary level.  One, such extreme events characterized by cloud bursts and heavy rainfall have now become the norm; and two, urban flooding is already recognized as unique from the river flooding.  While our cities have lost the necessary free areas to help the heavy run off flow out of their territories freely, the massive decay and destruction of surface water bodies makes the situation worse.  Add to that the pollution through our storm water drains and industrial outlets.  Urban flooding is getting fatal.

What we need is to thoroughly study the recent extreme events caused by climate change, the urban planning scenario and prepare ourselves accordingly to brace for two things at the least: 1. To accommodate the ever increasing influx of population into our urban areas with all humane and basic amenities/facilities; and 2. To prepare and build resilience towards the growing extreme events caused by climate change so that all that the cities have been able to provide to their citizens are not devastated.  And for this, restoring the urban ecology holds the major key.

We need to free our water ways, lakes, water bodies, drainage lines, flood plains from all sorts of encroachment; and if necessary, create more water bodies for harvesting rainwater and recharging ground water.  Sufficient urban green spaces including urban forestry also need to be made an integral part of our urban areas.  That would not only ease the flood time chaos but also improve the ground water recharging situation and help tackle subsidence.

We need climate smart managers and aware citizens more than ‘concrete structure obsessed’ smart cities. We can’t let our cities sink for sure!