South Asia needs to prepare for Climate Change, come hell or high water

“Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice” – Robert Frost

While Robert Frost was only using metaphors, he might as well have been a sage portending climate change. Looking at the news today, we’re flanked by two of our neighbours facing deathly disasters. On one side, Pakistan is facing the worst flood in a decade, and on the other, China is reeling under a devastating drought. Both extreme weather events are unprecedented in the history of the two respective nations. In China, the dry spell is so bad that it has stalled electricity production in hydroelectric power plants. They have resorted to coal to fulfil their energy requirements, which creates a vicious cycle of carbon emissions and climate change. A drought of this proportion has also affected the production of food grains. In Pakistan, on the other hand, some parts have received rain way above the normal level of rainfall. For instance, Balochistan, predominantly a desert region, received 450 per cent additional rainfall in July. There is cause for concern since India and Pakistan receive rain from the same source.
With the rise in global average mean temperature, glacier boundaries around the world are rescinding, and the average mean sea level is on the rise. However, the impact of climate change is not uniform across the globe. The developed countries like the United States of America and those of Europe, which have been at the forefront of carbon emissions since the beginning of Industrialisation, are the least affected. On the other hand, the developed countries that have just started on the path of growth are facing the brunt of climate change. As per the State of Climate in Asia 2020 report of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), countries like India, China, Bangladesh and other South Asian countries emerge as major victims. Cumulatively India and Bangladesh alone have suffered a loss of $23 billion, and over 27 million people have been affected. Five of the top 10 countries with major losses come from the South Asian region.Temperature rise has already resulted in profound alterations to human and natural systems, including increases in droughts, floods, and some other types of extreme weather events, sea level rise, and biodiversity loss – these changes are causing unprecedented risks to vulnerable persons and populations (IPCC, 2012a, 2014a; Mysiak et al., 2016; Chapter 3 Sections 3.4.5–3.4.13)

Excessive Rainfall

We are seeing the destruction that the unprecedented levels of rainfall have caused in Pakistan. This calamity is preceded by many years of extreme weather events of varying proportions. In the monsoon of 2020, countries in South Asia received heavy rainfall resulting in floods and landslides and other mass wasting events.

Cyclones

Apart from rainfall, cyclones have been other major causes of death and destruction in the South Asian region. As per the State of the Climate in Asia 2020 report of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in 2020, five tropical cyclones with maximum sustained wind speeds of 34 knots formed over the North Indian Ocean and all of them made landfall. One cyclone formed over the Arabian Sea, and four cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal, resulting in near-normal cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea (1.0 tropical cyclone formed on average 1981–2010) and above-normal cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal (2.9 tropical cyclones formed on average 1981–2010). “Tauktae” (14-19 May 2021), which was formed in the Arabian Sea, and the very severe cyclonic Storm “Yaas” (23-28 May 2021) in the Bay of Bengal are a few of the recent and notable cyclonic events. A total of 153 lives were reportedly lost, over 94 were injured, and more than 50 people went missing because of the two cyclones.

Droughts & Heatwaves

About two months ago, on August 23, 2022, four government departments of China issued a joint warning regarding the autumn harvest in the country. Over 75 per cent of the annual grain production of the country is produced in the autumn harvest, which was under “severe threat” from drought. This spell is now on its 74th day. It has affected over 900 million people out of a population of 1.4 billion because power demand has increased significantly due to the rise in air conditioning.
According to the 6th Assessment Report (IPCC), the area fraction with extreme warmth in Asia increased from 1951 to 2016. The frequency of warm extremes increased, and the frequency of cold extremes decreased in East Asia and West Asia with high confidence. The duration of heat extremes has also lengthened in some regions, such as southern China (Luo and Lau, 2016). Still, there is medium confidence that heat extremes are increasing in frequency in South Asia. Warming trends in daily temperature extremes indices have also been observed in central Asia, the Hindu Kush Himalaya, and South East Asia. The intensity and frequency of cold spells in all Asian regions have decreased since the beginning of the 20th century.

Solutions Implemented and Future Plans

International Organisations like the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation, UNEP, and World Bank have actively set action plans and agreements to work for the South Asian region. The World Bank has come up with a climate change action plan 2021 to 2025 South Asia roadmap to help tackle and revamp key transitions. It has focused on food systems and landscapes, energy and transport and urbanisation.
When it comes to flash floods, a South Asia Flash Floods Guidance System (SAsiaFFGS) has already been launched. The system is part of a global level network serving the warning to over 3 billion (40 per cent of the world population) and 60 countries. Similarly, India Meteorological Department (IMD) also provides flash flood advisories to the member countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and India. Apart from that, IMD has provided training to over 130 forecasters in the abovementioned countries.
Under the guidance of the Red Crescent Society, the state of Bangladesh has built an early warning system (EWS) based on a volunteer force of more than 30,000 men and women to disseminate cyclone warnings.
The information will be provided with the help of village-level focal points and help carry out rescue operations. The Rise of Natural Disasters in Asia and the Pacific report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) shows how such community-level participation can bring about tremendous change and help mitigate the adverse effects during a calamity. The report said, “while Cyclone Bhola in November 1970 killed over 300,000 people, another storm of similar magnitude, in 1997, took just 188 lives.”
Climate Change is worsening at lightning speed. Despite conventions, conferences, resolutions and action plans, we haven’t been able to make a significant dent in the situation, let alone reverse it. The world’s poorest countries face the worst consequences of climate change, and the most vulnerable communities are the worst victims. And this trend is expected to continue. Climate Change only compounds the multiple challenges faced by South Asia. Apart from taking measures to stop climate change, we must also take steps to mitigate its adverse effects. Localised solutions are needed to build resilience in vulnerable communities.