Shifting transit preferences in Indian Cities 2.0

As cities are rebuilding themselves post-pandemic, the transit preference of the people is also shifting from public to private modes. According to an analysis by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), the percentage of people using public transport in cities is projected to decrease from 75.7 per cent in 2000-01 to 44.7 per cent in 2030-31.

While there could be several reasons for this long term shift, in the near term, an important reason behind growth of private vehicles is citizen hesitancy in using trains, buses and metro given the fear of COVID infection. This trend comes with attached complexities involving increased vehicular pollution, higher congestion and parking space problems, and elevated risks of road accidents and several other undesirable outcomes. Just as the country started pushing aggressively for rapid rollout of e-mobility, Bharat emission norms, etc., the COVID pandemic seems to have set the clock back.

Effect of COVID-19

One of the main causes for the spread of COVID-19 infection is linked to hygiene; to contain its spread; suggestions include regular use of sanitiser, face mask, maintaining distance from others, and continuous disinfection of surroundings. These precautions are difficult to follow in public transport, which is a major mode of transport for daily commuters. An analysis by the CSE tells us that the capacity of public transport has drastically dipped by 73 per cent on average since March 2020, and the daily commuters are now wary of travelling in modes of mass transit such as metro and buses.
To help policy makers in giving insights to the transit sector, UITP (Union Internationale des Transports Publics) and the World Bank together studied the pattern of changes in the ridership of bus operators before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in India. 14 State Transport Undertakings (STUs), two government-supported urban bus contracting authorities and 11 private bus operators were analysed in the study.
The study mentions that their average daily ridership before pandemic was 1.5 million, but just 1-2 per cent of normal services were operational during lockdown. According to the respondents, 81 per cent of the operators reported no ridership post pandemic, while the rest witnessed a decline of almost 90 per cent. The study also provides insights into new measures which are being taken by bus operators to tackle the pandemic, including new cleaning protocols, additional vehicle cleaning and mandatory medical protective gear such as masks and gloves.
One must note, however, that the declining ridership in public mass transit during COVID-19 is not just because of citizen hesitancy. In instances such as the Mumbai suburban rail system and many metro operations, services were either severely curtailed, or ordinary citizens (other than essential services personnel) were not permitted to travel. This was a justified move given that some of these services are extremely crowded and any thought of social distancing would be immediately discarded. In many cases though, citizens have been clamouring for re-introduction of services for all, and authorities are responding in a calibrated manner.
In order to get a broader perspective on the issue, Team Urban Update spoke to Dr Geetam Tiwari, Professor, Indian Institute of Technology-Delhi (IIT-D). She said, “Clearly, public transport has been adversely affected. Reduction in ridership due to work restrictions and restriction on other activities led to a drastic reduction in travel demand. Skeletal bus services continued to meet essential service demand, however, there has been almost no effort to upgrade public transport services (fleet augmentation, infrastructure upgradation, improvement in operations, etc).” She added that in various phases of unlock, there has been very little effort to ensure the safety of public transport users (precautions taken to ensure less crowding and sanitisation). Therefore, as people resume travelling on a daily basis, people who own personal vehicles have begun avoiding public transport.

Maintaining sustainability in the new normal

Growing number of private vehicles on roads has made local governments sceptical about the environmental quotient of their respective regions. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7, 11, and 13 rely heavily on the level of pollution in cities and effective use of clean energy.
The Government of India mandated compliance of (Bharat Stage) BS-VI emission standards from April 2020. In addition, the state governments of Gujarat, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, and Uttarakhand, among others, have formulated their own electric vehicle (EV) policies in order to encourage the adoption of EVs in cities. The authorities are also providing subsidies on the purchase of two-, three-, and four-wheeler EVs in the hope of keeping SDG targets of Agenda 2030 in line with the changing face of Indian cities.

Way Ahead

While moving forward to the new phase of Indian cities and aiming for disaster resilient public transport, authorities and people have to work together in order to enhance urban transit through sustainable ways. On the one hand, promotion of EVs is to be sustained to clean up the air in our cities. Yet, issues such as congestion, parking space limitation, and road safety can be solved in a long term, sustained manner only by reducing the number of vehicles on the streets, ie., by promoting public transit aggressively. As cities rebuild in a post-COVID world, public transport modes need to be restored in a phased manner by improving hygiene and reducing risks of infection. There are several prescriptions. Some authorities are considering permitting fully vaccinated persons to use mass transit. This seems justified in the current context. Frequent sanitization of coaches and buses could help overcome hesitancy on the part of citizens. Services must be augmented with fresh investments in order to reduce crowding and its related risks.

Conclusion

The travel preferences of the people in cities are continuously changing in the post pandemic world, which affects both the environment and economy of cities. Public transport, which is losing its importance in the new cities, has to be stimulated again by way of an infrastructure overhaul and rethinking archaic revenue models. Prof Tiwari suggested that the government has to run public transport as an essential service and use special pandemic funds allocated for economic recovery to create dedicated funds for upgrading all aspects of public transport (fleet, technology, operations, public outreach). She added, “In 2008, when the world economy had collapsed and the global vehicle industry was facing huge losses, the Centre had introduced a special package for acquiring new, technologically advanced buses in most cities. A similar effort is required again.Urban local bodies and state transport authorities should be asked to prepare detailed plans for reviving bus services and prepare a road map for the next
five years.”
Efficient, safe, reliable and affordable public transport will be the backbone of our efforts to build sustainable cities of the future. We must do everything we can to succeed. For there is too
much at stake.