The year 2023, much like the preceding years in the last decade, has not been kind to humanity. We witnessed numerous natural disasters, including flash floods in Himachal during the monsoons and in Chennai in December. It seems we have not learned from our mistakes in the past.
A report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) following the 2015 Chennai floods clearly pointed out encroachments on floodplains, water bodies, and marshland as the main causes of damages during the Chennai floods. It stated that the Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority allowed the construction of 195 colonies on 175 acres of land that were originally part of 54 water bodies. Chennai is not an isolated case; such instances abound in almost every major city and urban settlement in India. The unplanned development in the mountains of Himachal and Uttarakhand has caused massive losses of property and human lives this year and earlier.
Climate change impacts are evident. People travelling to the mountains during Christmas and New Year holidays to witness snowfall were disappointed. Though there is no scientific reasoning to link the absence of snowfall to the fact of climate change did not take place because of climate change, it could be a reason. People, in general, believe so. However, there is no denying that climate change is intensifying climate disasters and causing a change in rainfall patterns, and more. It is a global phenomenon, but cities and urban local bodies need to work sincerely at the local level to adapt to changing climatic conditions.
India’s economy rise
Beating estimates, Indian economy has grown by 7.6 per cent, while the global economy grew by 2.6 per cent and is expected to slide to 2.4 per cent this year. According to the Economist, most experts expect an annual growth rate of 6 per cent or more for the rest of this decade. Government spending on infrastructure has gone up considerably in the last few years, from around 3.5 per cent of GDP in 2019 to nearly 4.5 per cent in 2022 and 2023. While focusing on accelerating the pace of building physical infrastructure, the Indian government is keeping a close eye on the sustainability front. In the year-end edition, I wrote that the newly-built Indian airports are green airports.
Similarly, all the infrastructure projects that the government are planning are considerate of their impacts on the environment. The country, unlike China in its neighbourhood, is building public infrastructure responsibly by keeping environmental concerns in check. In the new geopolitical situation, many western countries are moving out of China, and India could become a favourite destination. Many state government initiatives in India, like the famous Vibrant Gujarat Global Investment Summit, are attracting foreign investors to their states. The national government is focusing on manufacturing-led growth, and for this, the necessary infrastructure is being put in place. Though these efforts will not bear fruit immediately, they will build a strong economic foundation for the country. There is healthy competition among cities and towns, as well as in different states. India is eyeing becoming a 5-trillion-dollar economy by 2027, a 10-trillion-dollar economy by 2035, and a 30-trillion-dollar economy by 2047.
To contribute to this, cities will play a major role, as urban centres contribute significantly, about 70 per cent, to the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Hence, it is for sure that city development will pick up pace and new cities will come up while the existing ones will see infrastructural transformation. It is expected that the new government this year will come up with some new urban missions to make life in our cities better and lay a sustainable roadmap for new urban centers that, in turn, will ensure India achieves its financial target within the given timeframe.
At the global level, India finds itself holding the 112th position among 166 countries, graded against the tape measure of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). I know this is not a good position to boast about. First, we have poor data reporting at all levels. If this improves, our position will certainly go up. Another reason not to dismiss these numbers is that India boasts a high spillover score, evidence of our potential to create the positive ripples in the sustainability world, not just for ourselves but for other nations sharing the same ambitions. India has given a call for manufacturing-led growth. It will certainly propel us forward on the economic highway; the collateral damage to our environmental oasis poses a critical question: Can we strike a balance between prosperity and well-being? Yes, we can, and the country has begun doing so at all levels, whether by promoting the generation of electricity through renewables, the promotion of electric vehicles, green hydrogen, and whatnot. It is giving a strong message that India is aspiring for sustainable economic growth with care for the environment and will therefore adopt appropriate policy design and implementation which are central.
New Year, New Hope
A new year brings new hope. In 2024, there will be general elections in many countries, including India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, South Africa, Mexico, the UK, the US, and many other countries. As Ruchir Sharma, a famous economist, states in one of his interviews, “In fact, 46 per cent of the world’s population will have elections. That’s the highest since 1800.” It is believed that except for India and a few other countries, most of the national governments going to the polls are facing anti-incumbency. It means political parties running for elections need to mend usual ways. We hope climate matters will find space in political campaigns. We hope the newly elected national governments will be more serious about handling the climate crisis through global collaboration.
We must be hopeful in the new year. We hope that conflicts in Asia, Europe, and the Red Sea will end sooner. We hope our cities will learn from their mistakes in the past and find a sustainable way forward. We must hope and believe that something better is possible. With this optimism, I wish every reader of Urban Update a happy and sustainable new year.
The Indian economy is getting stronger. It is time for our cities to also become financially strong.