COVID-19 active cases in India may peak in mid-may: IIT scientists

NEW DELHI: A mathematical module created by scientists from Indian Institute of Technology, has predicted that the ongoing second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in India may peak between May 11 to May 15. According to the module, the peak of pandemic’s second wave will see total of 33-35 lakh active cases of COVID-19 across India, and may decline steeply by the end of May.

For the prediction, scientists from the IIT Kanpur and Hyderabad, applied the ‘Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach’ (SUTRA) model. According to the module’s calculation, states including Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Telangana may see an extreme high of new COVID-19 positive cases between April 25 and April 30.

In a statement to the PTI, Manindra Agrawal, professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur, said that the researchers and scientists, who are part of the project, have found a reasonable chance for the active cases in India to peak sometime in mid-May, making it a sharp slope. He said that the decline in active and new COVID-19 cases would likely be equally sharp after the peak.

Agrawal established that even a little bit of change each day causes the peak numbers to vary by thousands, and therefore, the SUTRA’s model predictions of the new peak is sensitive to the daily new infections data.