Climate Change to increase mortality rate due to excess heat: Lancet

NEW DELHI: In a study published in The Lancet Planetary Health Journal, it has been found that climate change will increase mortality rate six times by the end of the century. The study, conducted by the University of North Carolina, United States of America, said that high temperatures at night may disrupt normal sleep. Lack of sleep can, in turn, cause damage to the immune system and case cardiovascular diseases, chronic illnesses or mental health issues.

The temperature rise could go up from 20.4 degrees Celsius to 39.7 degrees Celsius in 2090, across 28 cities from east Asia, increasing the risk of disease. The results of the study indicate towards a troubling future for the planet, even after restrictions placed by the Paris Climate Agreement, which aims to limit the global rise in temperatures to below two degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial times.

The researchers calculated the excess heat-related mortality in 28 cities throughout China, South Korea, and Japan between 1980 and 2015, and applied it to two climate change modelling scenarios that matched the national governments’ adopted carbon-reduction plans. The researchers were able to predict that the probability of death from exceptionally hot nights will nearly double between 2016 and 2100. The mortality risk from daily average warming predicted by climate change models is substantially lower than this projection. One of the co-authors of the study said, “A more complete health risk assessment of future climate change can help policymakers for better resource allocation and priority setting.”