CHASING NET ZERO A Global Pursuit

India has joined the global ‘Race to zero’ campaign with more than 100 countries chasing to pursue net zero. Although the nation’s commitment to net zero emissions is a significant milestone in the global fight against climate change, it is also a challenging goal, given India is one of the largest emitters of GHGs, its reliance on fossil fuels, and an investment of 10.1 trillion beginning now to achieve its 2070 target. While it is not impossible for India, it clearly lacks directions, targets, and milestones for reaching its carbon zero goals. Will India make it by its 2070 target? Only time will tell

In 2015, 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in France entered into the Paris Agreement, a legally binding International treaty on climate change. The goal of the agreement was to hold the “Increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C (degree Celsius) above pre-industrial levels” and “To limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” Since then, emitting countries have been working on decarbonising several sectors,including energy industry, transport, and agriculture. The last decade, however, saw the highest carbon emissions in human history— 56 Giga tonnes and the Earth got about 1.1°C warmer than it was in the late 1800s.And yet emissions continue to rise.

WHAT IS NET ZERO?

In order to prevent the ultimate destruction of the planet, the international scientific consensus says that the global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) need to fall by 45 per cent by the year 2030- keeping 2010 as the base year and reach net zero around 2050. As global warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, the surface temperature will keep increasing for as long as global emissions remain more than zero-implying that the climate damage caused by global heating will continue to further intensify. This clearly shows that in order to avert the worst impacts of climate change, the increase in global temperature needs to be limited.

Simply put, net zero is an ideal state in which the amount of GHGs released into the earth’s atmosphere is balanced by the amount of GHGs removed as close to zero as possible− at which global warming stops. To transition into a net zero world, the current world requires a complete transformation−from replacing fossil fuel with renewables to investing in carbon capture and storage technology.

NET ZERO EMISSIONS

According to the United Nations Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report, 2022, the top seven emitters accounted for half of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. China was the biggest emitter followed by the United States of America, India, the European Union, Indonesia, The Russian Federation, and Brazil. Although high-income countries like the USA and the European Union are responsible for around 39 per cent of the historical emissions released since 1850, the developing nations have contributed only a fraction to it and will face the most loss and damage due to global warming. The impact of extreme climate change has already been felt−heavy rains bringing devastating flash floods and landslides in the northern states of India, whereas the northeastern region have witnessed three to four degree Celsius above normal temperatures. Scientists have stated that the human-caused climate crisis is making India’s monsoon season more chaotic and erratic.

The recent fire in Hawaii shocked everyone — killing at least 36 people, in one of the deadliest wildfires in the United States in modern history. The devastation stood out because of where it happened: in a state defined by its lush vegetation, far away from the dry landscape normally associated with fire threats.

The explanation is as straightforward as it is depressing: as the planet heats up, no place is protected from disasters.

INDIA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENT

At the COP26 held in Glasgow, United Kingdom, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi made new climate commitments to help slow down climate change. One of these was India’s commitment to net zero emissions by 2070.

Modi emphasised on reducing carbon emissions by one billion tonnes, and that India’s carbon emissions relative to its GDP would be curbed by 45 per cent from 2005 levels — improving upon its previously-targeted emissions cut of 33- 35 per cent from 2005 levels.

Although the promises demonstrate India’s commitment at the highest level for decoupling of economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions; international research organisations say otherwise. According to the Climate Action Tracker, India’s net zero target performs poorly in terms of its scope, target architecture and transparency and that there is significant room for improvement. It states that India could clarify the emissions scope of the target, better quantify its mitigation measures and pathways, develop a target review process and provide information on the extent of its intended use of carbon dioxide removal technologies.

In December 2022, a “net zero emissions” bill was introduced in the Rajya Sabha to provide a framework for achieving net zero emissions by the year 2070. The proposed bill suggested that the government establish emissions budgets every five years. It also outlined the establishment of an independent climate change commission responsible for providing policy recommendations and monitoring the progress towards attaining the net zero targets. While converting the net zero objectives into legislation is a significant step, it is important to note that since this bill was introduced as a private member’s bill rather than a public bill, its likelihood of approval in parliament is relatively low.

In the Long Term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LT-LEDS) which was submitted at COP27, India outlines sector-specific action areas, targeting the power, industry, transport, building, and urban sectors. Yet the LT-LEDS does not provide sufficiently clear policy guidance on how the government intends to achieve net zero beyond its current policies and programmes.

It does not present any emissions pathways, nor does it show to what extent policies and measures discussed in the LT-LEDS will translate into the required emissions reductions by 2070. The LT-LEDS also does not clarify the scope of the target that is whether it applies to CO2 only or all GHG emissions, nor does it provide transparent information on the extent of its intended use of Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) or other carbon dioxide removal technologies to achieve the net zero target.

WAY FORWARD TO ACHIEVE NET ZERO

To achieve net-zero emissions, we need immediate and impactful climate action. As we near the critical threshold of 1.5°C increase in global temperature, the focus is now on governments to lead the way in realising how to achieve net-zero emissions.

Some of the most feasible pathways to net-zero emissions include

• Generating electricity without emissions using sources such as wind, solar, nuclear, and water power.
• Using vehicles and equipment that are powered by electricity instead of fossil fuels.
• Investing in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology.

There is a widespread consensus among policymakers that solar and wind energy alone will not suffice to provide energy to everyone. Understanding this, countries like Argentina, South korea, Canada, China, Russia and the USA are opting for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) — an alternative to Nuclear Power Plants that can generate around 300 MegaWatt and being recognised as a low- emission clean energy source.

In the face of escalating climate challenges, the pursuit of net zero emissions has emerged as a beacon of hope and India’s commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2070 is a significant stride towards this collective endeavor. To secure a sustainable future, the journey to net zero not just compels ambitious commitments, but a relentless drive to transform industries, energy systems, and mindsets nurturing a world where the balance of emissions and removals ensures a harmonious coexistence.