British researchers develop model to evaluate death risk for COVID patients

LONDON: Scientists in Britain have developed a new four-level scoring model for predicting the possibility of death in COVID positive patients. This, according to the scientists, will help doctors in assessing the conditions of COVID patients and quickly decide on the best care for them. The tool, detailed in a research published in the BMJ medical journal on Wednesday, September 9, helps doctors put patients into one of four COVID-19 risk groups – from low, to intermediate, to high or very high risk of death.

The new model is called the 4C (coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium) Mortality Score and uses data such as age, sex, underlying conditions, breathing and blood oxygen levels. Studies, conducted in order to determine the reliability of the model, showed that the 4C Mortality Score model yielded more accurate results than 15 other comparable models. It also proved to be more useful in clinical decision-making.

The model uses patient information to calculate the possibility of death of a COVID-19 patients and gives scores ranging from 0 to 21. Patients with a score of 15 or more had a 62 per cent mortality risk. However, patients with scores of 3 or less had only a 1 per cent mortality risk. This means that patients with a low score may not be required to be admitted in the hospital while patients with high scores could be expedited for more aggressive treatment.