The COVID-19 necessitated lockdown resulted in a severe curtailment in travel. Most daily office-goers worked from home, there was virtually no entertainment-related travel and many shopping-related trips were replaced by ordering online. As a result, streets that were otherwise choked were suddenly devoid of traffic for several months. As things open up, questions arise on whether the old movement patterns will be restored or are we likely to see a new normal.
Most would like to see a new normal where cities are less polluted and less congested. Is this what we will get or are we heading for something worse than what we had before the pandemic?
A quick survey undertaken by the World Resources Institute (WRI) India on possible post-COVID mobility preferences showed that many young workers want to get a personal motor vehicle as they are worried about using public transport due to fear of the virus. This concern is manifested in the increased sale of 2-wheelers and small cars. Therefore, apprehensions that past efforts at persuading people to move to public transport from their vehicles will get reversed are not unfounded. There are also concerns on how public transport systems will make up for the lockdown period losses when they lost revenue even as they incurred almost 60 per cent of their normal costs. Mere resumption of services will not help improve the situation very much for three reasons:
- Expenses will exceed normal levels due to the added precautions necessary to keep the systems safe for users
- The emerging culture of remote working will reduce passengers and revenue
- The need to ensure a safe physical distance between passengers will reduce the number of passengers that can be accommodated
Just one kind of bus service is not enough. There is need for superior quality services with higher fares and much better quality. Such premium services will not need public subsidies either.
At a webinar during the Urban Mobility India conference on November 9, 2020, an esteemed panel, comprising experts from the World Bank, Transport for London, and govt agencies, were firm in their assessment that public transport will only face a temporary setback and will bounce back very soon. There were views that the demand for transport may not come down very much as only a small segment of the daily commuters can afford the luxury of working from home. Most others will need to travel every day.
This is a good time to set right the years of neglect in putting public transport finances on a more sustainable foundation. The State Transport Corporations together incurred a loss of nearly 16,500 crore in 2016-17. Metro rail systems in just 8 cities lost over2,200 crore in 2018-19. Such deficits need to be plugged on a solid foundation of innovative funding.
Just one kind of bus service is not enough. There is a need for superior quality services with higher fares and much better quality. Such premium services will not need public subsidies either
The traditional approach to bridging revenue – cost gaps has been a subsidy from the public budget. However, the pandemic has been a huge drain on the public budget for the relief and rehabilitation work and the availability of resources to meet public transport operational deficits will be severely constrained. Therefore, it is a good time to rethink how such gaps can be met for the present and in the years to come. It is an opportunity to fix public transport finances once and for all.
Solutions to revive public transport
Fortunately, several good options have been successfully tried in other parts of the world. However, they have yet to be tried out in India in a systematic manner. The one with the best potential seems to be the commercial exploitation of land owned by most public transport systems. So far they have been looked upon as essential assets for the operation of public transport. They have not been looked upon as potentially revenue-generating assets. In a simple, back of the envelope calculation , and using data on property and rental values from Magicbricks.com, the author had estimated that the Delhi metro could raise over 4,90,000 crore from sale of the property and nearly1,25,000 crores from rental income over 20 years. The rental income alone would more than meet the operating revenue gap for the Delhi metro as well as the entire public transport system in the city. The earnings from the sale of property would more than pay back the loans taken by the Delhi metro and serve as a capital resource for
additional investments.
Further, there is tremendous potential earnings by Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) from its depots and terminals located on prime land across the city. DTC owns over 35 depots across the city. These depots are primarily used for parking buses at night and some preventive maintenance work. During the day, these are virtually empty and could be better used as public parking facilities. Also, air rights can be used for the construction of residential and office complexes, which would provide substantial revenue. Systematic work at estimating the potential at each depot and designing micro-level plans will be essential. This should neither be difficult nor expensive, compared to the kind of revenue potential that exists. The challenge is a mental willingness to take it up.
Second, there is a need to think about the quality of public bus services. Currently, most cities have only a single type of bus service that traditionally offer affordable but low-quality services as they have been seen as the last resort of people who can afford nothing else. Therefore, they suffer from an image problem. Many commuters shun them for fear of damaging their reputation vis-a-vis their peers. This is the time to think of introducing premium services that have much better quality and can attract passengers away from the private modes of transport. Just one kind of bus service is not enough. There is a need for superior quality services with higher fares and much better quality. Such premium services will not need public subsidies either.
Third, with months of working from home, several white-collar workers, especially in the IT industry, consultancy firms, think tanks, etc. have gotten used to working remotely and have begun to find it convenient. As a result, many may not revert to going to an office five days a week but may reduce the frequency of their daily commute. The chances are that their travel needs may now be limited to short trips in the vicinity, not exceeding 3 – 4 kms. However, there is no public transport for such trips and people tend to use personal motor vehicles. Such trips should be nudged towards walking or cycling by investing in safe walkways and cycle tracks. The Government of Delhi has already decided to build over 500 kms of complete streets in the capital. This means the streets will be designed for use by all categories of users and not just car users. This is, indeed a very forward-looking initiative and other cities need to learn from this and replicate the effort.
Fourth, the world is looking at electric vehicles very aggressively and most manufacturers are moving ahead with announcing their electric vehicle manufacturing plans. India has also announced its intent to promote electric vehicles but is yet to put out a coherent, comprehensive, and coordinated road map for going electric. This needs to be done quickly as it offers an opportunity for India to acquire a global
leadership position.
Thus, the pandemic offers an opportunity to look at greener post-COVID mobility. We need to establish innovative ways of financing public transport on a sustainable basis, create the infrastructure that makes walking and cycling safer, put in place, premium bus services that can wean away users of personal motor vehicles, and a coordinated approach to move towards electric vehicles will contribute to a new normal with blue skies and reduced pollution. This is an opportunity that should not be lost.