NEW DELHI: A study by researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) recently predicted that India may witness nearly 2.87 lakh COVID-19 positive cases daily by February 2021. The study titled ‘Estimating the Global Spread of COVID-19’ has made predictions regarding several countries worldwide. However, the estimate has been calculated based on the condition that till then, a vaccine has not been developed and brought to the market for consumer use.
The study also predicts that India will overcome United States in the total number of COVID cases in the country by end of this year. The US, by early next year, would be recording 95,000 cases, South Africa 21,000 and Iran would be handling 17,000 cases. The study also highlighted the extreme importance of extensive testing and tracing in order to contain the virus. Delaying or slowing down testing could be fatal to large sections of the global population.
Their model predicts there could be 1.55 billion cases in 84 countries, but just a 0.1 percent increase in testing per day would significantly reduce cases, down to 1.37 billion. “Both these scenarios project a very large burden of new cases in the fall (September-November) 2020, with hundreds of millions of cases concentrated in a few countries estimated to have insufficient responses given perceived risks (primarily India, but also Bangladesh, Pakistan, and USA). In contrast, changes in response policies would make a major difference,” the study says.