Nations are in the process of submitting their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Climate Agreement. In fact, nations have been asked by the UN to submit more ambitious climate plans before the next COP26 that is set to happen in Glasgow in November next year, delayed by almost a year due to the COVID19 pandemic impacts. The current plans, communicated as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), fall short of meeting the existing Paris Agreement goals. This agreement has set a goal to keep global average temperature increase substantially less than 2°C against the pre-industrial value but intends to make all attempts so that this can be kept below 1.5°C deg.
The Paris Agreement was reached at the COP21 Summit in 2015 and therefore the first milestone date for countries to strengthen their NDCs and enhance emission reduction targets falls this year. It is from this year (2020) that the implementation of the Paris Agreement begins. They are now asked to submit the plans by December this year or at best February 2021. One of the top priorities of the Glasgow Summit was to have updated and more ambitious NDCs, that would also include growing numbers of national net-zero emission targets alongside plans to finalise the technical rulebook for the Paris Agreement ahead of its entry into full legal force. The new plans are therefore very crucial.
The current crisis
The NDCs are also aimed at building the capacity of communities to adapt to climate change and build resilience. There is a huge challenge for the world as fossil fuel phase-out is not happening in the way it should.
Fossil fuels, the predominant contributor to climate change, need to be drastically reduced. However, a 2019 analysis of energy plans has found that there is vast disconnect between climate goals and energy production plans. In fact, it has found that the governments are collectively intending to produce 50 per cent more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2°C, and 120 per cent more than could be safely burned while keeping warming below 1.5°C. The NDCs at the moment need to triple their pledges to achieve the below 2-degree ambition and increase those by five times in order to be able to meet the 1.5-degree ambition.
There is a growing voice that governments take note of the importance of wetlands in achieving both the mitigation and adaptation targets to meet the Paris Climate goals. A just-published report by the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA) and Wetlands International (WI) has called upon policymakers and leaders of the nations to make well-informed decisions by clearly understanding climate-related risks and developing well-defined strategies to mitigate them. Successful climate actions could be those that have at their core nature-based solutions incorporating ecosystem-based approaches. Protection and restoration of wetlands can not only help achieve Paris climate goals but also provide a multitude of co-benefits for the societies, economies and ecosystems themselves.
Wetlands to the rescue
This report that emphasises on the importance of integrating wetlands into the NDCs reminds us of the importance of wetlands such as mangroves and peatlands in meeting our ambitious climate goals. In fact, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already emphasised on the importance of conservation of high-carbon ecosystems such as wetlands, including mangroves and peatlands, as mitigation response options with high impacts.
Sadly, we are losing our wetlands and related ecosystems on a large scale. An estimate by the Ramsar Convention of Wetlands found that the world has lost 64 per cent of its wetlands since 1900. Just between 1970 and now the world has lost 35 per cent of its wetlands. Urbanisation is among the major causes. Just in a span of three decades, it is estimated, nearly one-third of the natural wetlands in our country have lost their battle of survival to human greed. The loss has been rapid in urban areas. Pollution is another major factor.
An estimate by the Government of India points at degraded health of wetlands. One in every four wetlands studied under this ecosystem health assessment was found to be of low ecosystem health and faced high to very high threat. In fact, healthy and intact wetlands are vital ecosystems that preserve biodiverse natural habitats and help us in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change besides helping the communities in the neighbourhood with many services including food and nutrition security. Healthy wetlands protect communities against floods, droughts, regulate water supply and keep the air clean. These are defined as ecosystem co-benefits.
If the destruction of the wetlands continues at this rapid rate, we will lose our fight against poverty, food insecurity, unemployment, health and above all climate change. Wetlands are vital not only in hosting the local biodiversity but also in providing livelihoods and mitigating climate change. It is estimated that the ecosystem services provided by natural wetlands make up 43.5 per cent of the monetary value of all-natural biomes. More valuable are the critical functions they play in building our defence against disasters and poverty of the communities who regularly face these disasters. Let’s take the example of sea rise and mangroves.
Ecosystem-based mitigation in climate actions –
A just-published research paper in Nature Scientific Reports, authored by Ebru Kirezci and others, that used global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century has warned that if governments don’t make serious progress in reducing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, there will be an increase of 48 per cent of the world’s land area, 52 per cent of the global population and 46 per cent of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. This study was conducted with detailed data analysed from thousands of global “hotspots” and has projected significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in North-Western Europe and Asia. Several stretches of the Bay of Bengal are projected to face this devastating increase.
Many stretches in the Bay of Bengal are already facing several challenges owing to both man-made and natural disasters induced by climate change. In my state Odisha alone, estimates put it that about 40 per cent of the shoreline is facing different degrees of erosion. Thousands of people are therefore under the constant threat of losing their lands, livelihoods and rights to local natural resources. Coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic areas of interactions between terrestrial and marine processes. The process of erosion and sedimentation, periodic floods and cyclones and sea-level changes continuously modify the shoreline and hence needs to be taken seriously in our planning process especially if we want to reduce the impacts of such changes as well as build our resilience to climate change. It is established beyond doubt that wetlands such as the mangroves can play a big role in building such resilience besides meeting Paris Climate goals.
The AGWA and WI report, citing scientific studies, points out that, strategies that integrate land, water and resource management to promote conservation and sustainable and equitable use – or ecosystems approach – can deliver at least a third of the cost-effective CO2-equivalent emission mitigation needed through 2030 to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. In fact, the IPCC outlines conservation of high-carbon ecosystems such as wetlands, including peatlands and mangroves, as mitigation response options with high impacts. Time, countries incorporated the ecosystem-based mitigation approaches into tangible climate actions.
Recommendations
The above report says that in spite of their large potential for carbon mitigation, wetlands have not featured prominently within early climate commitments following the Paris Agreement. This needs to change. “Nature-based solutions are gaining more recognition as low-regret, high-impact means by which countries can meet the ambitious targets laid out in their NDCs. Wetlands are found across the globe and yet are often overlooked for their important role in the carbon cycle. Clear guidance and good data will help Parties to the UNFCCC properly value wetlands for their capacity to reduce emissions and store carbon, while simultaneously serving as an integral tool in their climate adaptation strategies,” suggests this report as it puts forth a set of recommendations for nations to consider in this regard. Hope wetlands get proper justice in the climate actions. Sooner the better!