India to surpass China as most populous nation by 2023: UN

NEW DELHI: The United Nations released a report titled ‘World Population Prospects 2022’ on the occasion of World Population Day on July 11. The report, prepared by the Population Division of Department of Economic and Social Affairs of UN, projected that India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country next year. It stated that the global population will likely reach eight billion by November mid this year.

UN’s report projects the world’s population to grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050. It is projected to attain peak of around 10.4 billion people during 2080s and to remain at that level till 2100. Although, the report noted that the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under one per cent in 2020.

Key Findings of the Report –

• Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, and Central and Southern Asia were the world’s two most populous regions in 2022 – with 2.3 billion people, amounting to 29 per cent of the global population and with 2.1 billion people, amounting to 26 per cent of the world population, respectively. China and India accounted for the largest populations in these regions, with more than 1.4 billion people in each nation in 2022.
• More than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050, will be concentrated in just eight countries – India, Pakistan, Egypt, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania, and the Philippines.
• India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2023. By 2050, India is projected to have a population of 1.668 billion people and China’s population will be at 1.317 billion.
• Ten countries across the world experienced a net outflow of more than 1 million migrants between 2010 and 2021. In many of those nations, the outflows were due to temporary labour movements – Pakistan (-16.5 million), India (-3.5 million), Bangladesh (-2.9 million), Nepal (-1.6 million), and Sri Lanka (-1 million). Other nations like Myanmar, Venezuela, and Syrian Arab Republic experienced outflow of migrants due to insecurity and conflicts.
• Global life expectancy at birth has been noted at 72.8 years in 2019, which is an improvement of almost 9 years since 1990. The report projected further reductions in mortality to result in an average global longevity of around 77.2 years in 2050. However, in 2021, life expectancy in the least developed countries lagged 7 years behind the global average.

António Guterres, UN Secretary-General said that this year’s World Population Day falls during a milestone year, “when we anticipate the birth of the Earth’s eight billionth inhabitant”. He said that this is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognise our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates.