NEW DELHI: A recent report published by the US-based Centre for Disease Dynamics and Economic Policy (CDDEP) has projected that the total number of cases of the Covid-19 pandemic in India could reach up to 111 crore by September 2020. It stated that even this number is the average of the expected range between 55-138 crore confirmed Covid-19 cases.
The report titled ‘SARS-COV-2 in India: Potential Impact of the Lockdown and Other Longer-Term Policies’ further stated that the range covers 50-150 per cent of the point estimate. The report says, “Estimates are based on latest available data but, given the novelty of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, these estimates still have some inherent uncertainty.”
Asymptomatic or mild infections may account for a significant proportion of the infected population. It also proposed continuation of tight restrictions in the country stating that easing the lockdown may result in a sudden explosion of contacts or non-infected persons with those who are mildly affected by the disease, resulting in an explosion of the number of positive Covid-19 cases.