NEW DELHI: Manindra Agrawal, Professor, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K) and member of a government committee tasked to provide the projections of COVID-19, said that by next February, almost half of the Indian population is likely to have been infected by COVID-19. However, daily positive cases in the country have been declining and have plummeted to an average of 61,000 cases daily.
Agrawal said that the mathematical model estimates that almost 30 per cent of the population has already been infected. He added that this number can go up to 50 per cent by February. The estimate of the committee for the current speed of spread is higher than serological surveys of the Government of India.
Data of the central government shows that around 14 per cent of the people have been affected as of September 2020. Agrawal said that serological surveys might not depict the correct number due to the size of population. Moreover, the committee of virologists, scientists and other experts has relied on the mathematical model only.